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Recent and future trends in (bio)energy

Jakob DONNER-AMNELL

Summary

The session will present and discuss recent global developments in the energy field, with a focus on renewable energy (incl. bioenergy) and include a short foresight exercise, pondering possible future developments and their effects on (bio)energy. Both these elements are important in the context of this course, because some of the trends in the global energy field have been strong and surprising in recent years, resulting in a clearly different “energy landscape” for the time being. Therefore, it is important to 1) get a firm grip on the trends, 2) analyze why they have come about and what their implications are, 3) ponder and imagine future developments that might change recent trends in another direction.

The session will be structured as follows:

The first part will consist of very short presentations (1-2 min/each) prepared by the participants (individually or in groups) focusing on the recent trends. The material can consist of the most recent reports from International Energy Agency (IEA) or similar, easily accessible material.

  1. What do the reports tell?
  2. Which factors explain the changes?
  3. How do the recent trends change/challenge earlier understanding of bio energy developments, markets and policies

The second part will consist of a short introduction to foresight, followed by a foresight exercise, which will be made in small groups during the session and summarized at the end.

  1. Discuss and imagine a few factors that might clearly change the present trends
  2. How could the global energy field look like 2030, if some factors change the present course of events?

 

Lecture materials

  • Lecture Slides  [PDF]

  • Readings

IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 20178 [PDF][PDFb]

IEA Renewables [PDF]

"World energy outlook." Paris: International Energy Agency (2018) [PDF]


Objectives

This session focuses on:

  • Why is there a need for foresight in bio (and other) energy developments?

  • What is foresight and how can it be made?

 

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